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A comment on Prediction Markets Beat Polls. Parent comment

Re:Prediction Markets Beat Polls by fossuser on Tuesday November 17, 2020 @06:25PM (#25131267)
Yeah - my take away from this election was that 538 modeling was really good and the betting markets were pretty bad.

Polling appeared to be decent, but with a skewed under reporting of trump support for an unknown reason. Lots of speculation about why, but it’s still just speculation.

Betting markets seemed all over the place, poor predictions that swung around, and at times were clearly wrong.

538’s model of potential outcomes was right on target and their analysis was solid. Biden’s chance of winning was high because he could survive a polling error, and he did.

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Re:Prediction Markets Beat Polls by tsimionescu on Wednesday November 18, 2020 @04:12AM (#25134673)
I think the Trump support was skewed much less than general republican skew - the senate and house races were extremely poorly predicted, much worse than the presidential race, and also in the same direction. The dems were predicted to win house seats, and they lost 6...
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