Would you? Thanks, that would be great!

I feel like we are about to enter the variation on the prisoner's dilemma where we all get a massive benefit if at least 70% of us get the vaccine, but getting the vaccine has a cost (please roll a D20 to select your random side effect) so everyone has an incentive to be one of the shirkers.

I foresee things getting ugly as we collectively all get together to shame, bully and trick the shirkers into compliance.

The immunocompromised and the economy get a benefit if we get to 70% vaccinated; I get a benefit for myself just by getting the vaccine.

I’ll allow that there is seemingly a significant portion of the population who believes they don’t personally benefit from a vaccine, but your comment said -everyone- is incentivized to shirk: that’s just not true.

That is fair. But I think that the fraction of people who individually benefit from getting the vaccine is less than the 70% who need to get it, do there's going to be a gap that will need to be filled with lies, bullying and shaming.

Of course this depends on the unknown factor of how bad the side effects are, if they are nonexistent then it's a different story, but if they are on average as bad as a flu shot then it becomes tricky.

I suppose I'm really thinking in the context of countries like Australia which have essentially eradicated the virus. My risk of getting the virus right now is practically zero, so my only incentive to get vaccinated is that we can eventually reopen our borders once enough people are vaccinated. And personally I'm in no hurry to get flooded by foreign tourists anyway.

This is not how the Prisoner's dilemma works since not getting the vaccine is not a purely dominant strategy. You are neglecting to adjust the vaccination scenario payout to account for the fact that you personally are much less likely to get Covid-19 if exposed to someone infected. This benefit largely exceeds any cost of receiving the vaccine based on current data.

This is not a prisoner's dilemma. The expected payoff if you get vaccinated is still far higher than the cost, whatever the rest of the population does, so you can ignore the cost in your calculation. It's like if the situation for the prisoner was that if you stay silent you go free, but if you both stay silent you both go free and the rest of your gang gets a reduced sentence too. Why would you ever defect?