Estimated 3° Warming by 2500 if we cut all emissions now

Re:Estimated 3° Warming by 2500 if we cut all emissions now by crave_ on Friday November 13, 2020 @02:09AM (#25079802)

From what I've head: these models are very accurate in estimating the mean global temperature difference even for long periods of time.

While the global trend is clear, they cannot estimate local developments very accurately - these are subject to chaos, and local changes. Note that the authors do not try to predict any local effects.

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Re:Estimated 3° Warming by 2500 if we cut all emissions now by travisoneill1 on Friday November 13, 2020 @02:23AM (#25079864)

They don't know what the model's accuracy is over long periods because it hasn't been around long enough to test.

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Re:Estimated 3° Warming by 2500 if we cut all emissions now by orwin on Friday November 13, 2020 @03:46AM (#25080386)

Well, i think the (honestly quite basic) climate model that came into being in 1974 is 95% accurate then, since it predicted the rise in average temperature until 2020.

What climate modelists do is take the data from 1950, put that in their models, and see how well ir predict the temperature and hydrometry of different areas. I think what they were working on in the 2010s was how much the artic polar circle was at risk of breaking more often, and what that would mean for the average temperature (not much) and precipitations (probably drier winters/springs in europe). Sadly they did not amke prediction about how much the polar winds descending south would kill buds and take a toll on orchards.

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Re:Estimated 3° Warming by 2500 if we cut all emissions now by brabel on Friday November 13, 2020 @02:54AM (#25080061)

While you can never be sure, you can apply your model to the past and see if it can predict the present.

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