Re:Kelly Criterion For Sport Betting
by gwern on Monday May 02, 2011 @09:46AM
(#2506236)
> Worse yet, if you consistently overestimate your edge, you'll bet too much and could eventually go broke.
Yes; I thought I had an edge because I had read a bunch of cognitive bias materials and I had calibrated myself with the usual quizzes and through things like registering hundreds of predictions on PredictionBook.com (http://predictionbook.com/users/gwern) and that sort of thing, but in all honesty, the overall number of independent discrete bets I made on the IEM and Intrade was low enough that I probably just got lucky.
Yes; I thought I had an edge because I had read a bunch of cognitive bias materials and I had calibrated myself with the usual quizzes and through things like registering hundreds of predictions on PredictionBook.com (http://predictionbook.com/users/gwern) and that sort of thing, but in all honesty, the overall number of independent discrete bets I made on the IEM and Intrade was low enough that I probably just got lucky.