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Re:One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong by throwaway32849 on Tuesday November 10, 2020 @05:00PM (#25052588)
> Most people I know voted Republican were low-wage working people, where my highly paid educated friends voted Democrat

Biden actively courted high-earning, educated voters with his free college and student loan forgiveness policies, which amount to a wealth transfer to people who already have higher lifetime average earnings and are at a competitive advantage in the employment marketplace. Not very progressive:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/18/opinion/student-debt-forg...

He also pledged to fund it by raising corporate income taxes, which will reduce the profitability (and therefore, the value) of all publicly traded companies in the US, which means anyone with a 401(k) or IRA will indirectly be paying for this, even if they don't have student loan debt or a college degree at all.

Re:One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong by throwaway32849 on Tuesday November 10, 2020 @05:46PM (#25053113)
I'm not sure why this was downvoted. The degree divide is growing as an electorate bifurcator, with the GOP fast becoming the party of the college-less:

> https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2020/1027/As-college-...

And as I pointed out, it's not solely for the reasons college-educated progressives are eager to suggest ("ignorant, uneducated people vote republican"). Student loan forgiveness is a flatly a regressive policy, amounting to a handout to people who are already economically advantaged.

> https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/student-loan-forgiveness-cou...

> Biden laid out a narrower plan, saying he would forgive $10,000 in student debt for all borrowers, and the rest of the debt for those who attended public colleges or historically Black colleges and universities and earn less than $125,000 a year.

Imagine being a non-college educated voter earning $60-70k a year, and reading that people earning upto $125k a year will get a handout.

Re:One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong by nl on Tuesday November 10, 2020 @06:47PM (#25053678)
While it's true that the average salary of people who complete a college degree is higher than those who don't there are large numbers who don't complete the degree (which ends up with little salary benefit), or who do degrees that don't provide great salary outcomes[1]

[1] https://www.bls.gov/careeroutlook/2020/data-on-display/educa... - note the associate degree and "some college" levels.

> He also pledged to fund it by raising corporate income taxes, which will reduce the profitability (and therefore, the value) of all publicly traded companies in the US, which means anyone with a 401(k) or IRA will indirectly be paying for this,

That's not how it works. The stockmarket is a comparative market where higher profitability compared to other companies is what affects stock price. This means tax increases to all companies don't drop stock prices.

Also the amount of tax increase is so small it is unlikely to be noticeable on the P&L anyway.

Re:One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong by karpierz on Tuesday November 10, 2020 @07:04PM (#25053854)
> The stockmarket is a comparative market where higher profitability compared to other companies is what affects stock price.

Can you provide evidence for this? I was under the impression that price is dictated by long-term underlying company value. That is to say, time-discounted, risk-adjusted dividends, including buy-outs. Dividends are just paid out via stock-buybacks these days because the dividends are taxed more, despite them being functionally equivalent.

Re:One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong by nl on Tuesday November 10, 2020 @07:53PM (#25054286)
I was under the impression that price is dictated by long-term underlying company value. That is to say, time-discounted, risk-adjusted dividends, including buy-outs.

It's true that price is determined by long-term value, but long-term value isn't sorely dictated by dividends. Expected price appreciation itself is a factor for growth stocks. Growth stocks include some very large companies, including Google and Facebook.

Earnings is seen as an indication of future value (and future dividends if it is an income stock rather than a growth stock)

https://finance.zacks.com/profits-reflect-stock-prices-8263....

Re:One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong by throwaway32848 on Tuesday November 10, 2020 @08:44PM (#25054660)
> That's not how it works. The stockmarket is a comparative market where higher profitability compared to other companies is what affects stock price. This means tax increases to all companies don't drop stock prices.

The value of any stock (or bond or other financial asset) is its expected future cash flows discounted back to the present at a rate that reflects the risks associated with those cash flows. This is corporate finance 101. Higher taxes for US companies means lower cash flows, and lower values for those assets, unless the discount rate is lowered enough (e.g., lowering interest rates further, even going negative) to compensate. Companies with more US exposure will become less valuable, and money will flow to other assets, including bonds, foreign stocks, etc., to reflect the shift in value.

Re:One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong by nl on Tuesday November 10, 2020 @09:01PM (#25054767)
Companies with more US exposure will become less valuable, and money will flow to other assets, including bonds, foreign stocks, etc., to reflect the shift in value.

Indeed, this is a good point too. 401K managers are aware of this and can just shift allocations.