Re:One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong
by TechBro8615 on Tuesday November 10, 2020 @03:20PM
(#25051323)
Trafalgar group did a pretty good job this election. They were also lambasted by Democratic media and called wackos and nutjobs. Meanwhile WaPo put its name on a poll that had Biden +17 in WI.
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Re:One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong
by tptacek on Tuesday November 10, 2020 @03:45PM
(#25051664)
No, they didn't. They were off by 4 in AZ (and called it for Trump), by 5 in Georgia (again for Trump), 6 in Michigan (again), 8 in Wisconsin (and again), and 3 in PA (which they, again, called for Trump). They were also off by 7 in Minneapolis (which they correctly called for Biden) and 6 in Ohio (which they correctly called for Trump).
There was a narrative on e-day that Trafalgar had done a good job, because Democratic votes were disproportionately counted later in the week. But if you'd relied on Trafalgar predictions to allocate resources in an election, you'd have gotten depantsed.
Re:One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong
by tgb on Tuesday November 10, 2020 @04:03PM
(#25051869)
Moreover the Trafalgar head of polling went on Fox a day before the election claiming that there would be 4% points of systematic election fraud happening in Pennsylvania. So "nutjob" and "wacko" would be underselling them.
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/trafalgar-pollster-robert-cahaly...