Re:Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided ...
by pron on Tuesday November 10, 2020 @05:11AM
(#25044320)
Thank you, this is helpful.
Political psychologists claim that, generally (and, of course, as a simplification), the right is over-sensitive to danger, while the left is under-sensitive. If I understand you correctly, you're saying that conspiracy theories aren't actual beliefs about what is actual reality, but rather potential threats, and so, tend to focus on hidden threats -- because that's where "real danger" is presumed to lie -- rather than overt ones, like, say, global warming. Is that what you're saying?
So I think I understand the general framework better now. Nevertheless, while conspiracies are, of course, always possible, they're quite implausible. I can't help but think about Hofstadter's "paranoid style":
> The paranoid’s interpretation of history is distinctly personal: decisive events are not taken as part of the stream of history, but as the consequences of someone’s will. Very often the enemy is held to possess some especially effective source of power: he controls the press; he has unlimited funds; he has a new secret for influencing the mind (brainwashing); he has a special technique for seduction...
> ... Having no access to political bargaining or the making of decisions, they find their original conception that the world of power is sinister and malicious fully confirmed. They see only the consequences of power—and this through distorting lenses—and have no chance to observe its actual machinery. A distinguished historian has said that one of the most valuable things about history is that it teaches us how things do not happen. It is precisely this kind of awareness that the paranoid fails to develop. He has a special resistance of his own, of course, to developing such awareness, but circumstances often deprive him of exposure to events that might enlighten him...
From what I see in popular conspiracy theories, this is what happens. They form around a Hollywood thriller's perception of power, but those who've seen power up close -- whether in large corporations, the military or politics -- know that this is not how power works. Secrets can't be kept; conflicting interests make it hard if not impossible to get enough people on the same page, and the less mainstream that page is, the harder it is; even the craftiest people are clumsy and make mistakes all the time.
The few successful plots and revolutions in history never happen even remotely to the way conspiracies say they could happen. E.g. they're virtually never dropped from above on an unsuspecting public, but almost always start with restless masses and pervasive instability like Russia's mutinous and depleted military in WWI, or Cuba's series of insurrections; you can usually see them coming a mile away. Even the relatively surprising Iranian revolution was at least as much grass-roots as it was led from above. So even if the framework is one of identifying threats, their originators'/believers' unfamiliarity with history and power looks for threats in the wrong place.
Political psychologists claim that, generally (and, of course, as a simplification), the right is over-sensitive to danger, while the left is under-sensitive. If I understand you correctly, you're saying that conspiracy theories aren't actual beliefs about what is actual reality, but rather potential threats, and so, tend to focus on hidden threats -- because that's where "real danger" is presumed to lie -- rather than overt ones, like, say, global warming. Is that what you're saying?
So I think I understand the general framework better now. Nevertheless, while conspiracies are, of course, always possible, they're quite implausible. I can't help but think about Hofstadter's "paranoid style":
> The paranoid’s interpretation of history is distinctly personal: decisive events are not taken as part of the stream of history, but as the consequences of someone’s will. Very often the enemy is held to possess some especially effective source of power: he controls the press; he has unlimited funds; he has a new secret for influencing the mind (brainwashing); he has a special technique for seduction...
> ... Having no access to political bargaining or the making of decisions, they find their original conception that the world of power is sinister and malicious fully confirmed. They see only the consequences of power—and this through distorting lenses—and have no chance to observe its actual machinery. A distinguished historian has said that one of the most valuable things about history is that it teaches us how things do not happen. It is precisely this kind of awareness that the paranoid fails to develop. He has a special resistance of his own, of course, to developing such awareness, but circumstances often deprive him of exposure to events that might enlighten him...
From what I see in popular conspiracy theories, this is what happens. They form around a Hollywood thriller's perception of power, but those who've seen power up close -- whether in large corporations, the military or politics -- know that this is not how power works. Secrets can't be kept; conflicting interests make it hard if not impossible to get enough people on the same page, and the less mainstream that page is, the harder it is; even the craftiest people are clumsy and make mistakes all the time.
The few successful plots and revolutions in history never happen even remotely to the way conspiracies say they could happen. E.g. they're virtually never dropped from above on an unsuspecting public, but almost always start with restless masses and pervasive instability like Russia's mutinous and depleted military in WWI, or Cuba's series of insurrections; you can usually see them coming a mile away. Even the relatively surprising Iranian revolution was at least as much grass-roots as it was led from above. So even if the framework is one of identifying threats, their originators'/believers' unfamiliarity with history and power looks for threats in the wrong place.