Re:Kelly Criterion For Sport Betting
by jakewalker on Sunday May 01, 2011 @06:41PM
(#2504275)
Works fine until it doesn't. Therein lies the rub.
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Re:Kelly Criterion For Sport Betting
by VB6_Foreverr on Sunday May 01, 2011 @06:48PM
(#2504287)
The best strategy for this is to only do it for a limited period at large stakes so that your actual outcome is more likely to deviate from the expected outcome
I don't think you can get around the nightingale-ish expected value of this strategy, no matter how you adjust the stakes and number of bets.
Re:Kelly Criterion For Sport Betting
by VB6_Foreverr on Monday May 02, 2011 @03:58PM
(#2507577)
If the true odds are greater than 50% then you are more likely to win the bet than to lose it. So even if the odds given imply true odds far greater than 50% (ie poor odds) then you will still probably win money if you bet just 1 bet.