Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote...
by freewilly1040 on Monday November 09, 2020 @03:05PM
(#25039237)
The oft-cited theory about 1918 is that WWI upended the traits that were selected for in the virus. Whereas in peace time a more serious case would reduce the mobility of the victim, in war a serious infection would result in the patient (a soldier) being transported off the front lines, spreading the more serious version of the virus more.
Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote...
by sellyme on Monday November 09, 2020 @06:48PM
(#25041365)
Moving up in lethality while maintaining the same "infectiousness" still results in a real-world decrease in infection rate, as more infected hosts will die (and/or infected hosts will die more quickly), preventing them from spreading it further.
Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote...
by samatman on Monday November 09, 2020 @08:08PM
(#25041864)
In the case of COVID-19, which is highly contagious, has a long latency period, and is in fact not especially fatal by the standard of diseases ending in -RS, this might be true on paper, but would be cold comfort in practice.
Re:Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% prote...
by empthought on Monday November 09, 2020 @02:23PM
(#25038673)
Thank you for pointing this out.
If only it worked that way! It doesn't, of course.
A random walk can lead anywhere in the adjacent landscape. That includes moving up in lethality without moving down in infectiousness. What you have written here is plausible-sounding nonsense; if it were true, the 1918 flu would never have occurred.
The good news is that influenza is almost pathologically mutation-prone, and coronaviruses are not.