As of today we're at about 10 million cumulative cases (a full 3% of the country's entire population), 132,000 cases per day, and the cases-per-day count doubling every 20-30 days. That's a progression that gives you millions of new cases a day just by May.
Additionally, the 10M number is the number of people who have tested positive, not the number who have been infected, which is probably several times higher than that even.
So yeah. I doubt we have even two more doublings ahead of us, at least as measured by hospitalizations (positive tests are a bad measure because early testing was very lacking). Less than one wouldn't surprise me.
Known cases. True numbers are likely to be much higher than that. For starters, the estimated percentage of entirely asymptomatic infections is around 18% to 80%(1), with many more getting only mild symptoms. Many if not most people with mild symptoms will never bother to get tested.
It would not be surprising if 100 million Americans have in fact been infected already. That's the kind of ratio of known to actual cases that antibody testing has repeatedly found. And even that may be an underestimate, as antibody testing doesn't measure T-cell response.
There is no doubt that the virus is deadly, and more deadly for certain age groups, but let's not treat it like the great plague. On top of that, with mask use and distancing the spread is negligible, especially outside.
When did we get so risk-averse where every death should be prevented no matter the cost? Many people die for various reasons. You can maximize your age by sitting inside a cushioned room all your life to limit injuries, but I prefer to not live that way.
Do you really think there is any politiction out there who likes to shut their country down because of anything? Tanking the economy just because of some flue?
No.
Pandemic Experts (our experts, your experts) estimated that if we wouldn't do this, we would see a very bad outcome and Politictions decided that its more important to not hit this scenario and tank the economy instead.
Now your expert expertise on this is something like 'but let's not treat it like the great plague.'?
Funny enough, i'm in Europe and i do feel fine sitting at home. I'm quite happy that we don't have that high numbers as USA has.
The problem in the USA is not 'wearing masks outside and having no other restrictions' but 'coronavirus is a hoax' 'i can't breath with a mask' 'a mask is against the amendment' 'my freedom'.
And yes we have this stuff here as well. 20k people demonstrated because of masks. Like since when did our society became so antisocial or dumb, that people think wearing a facemask mandation made their lives so much worse that they want to demonstrate it?
For instance based on this text your “tone” is combative, but I bet you are reading it in your mind with eye brows raised and hearing a different accent on syllables. Maybe you would say that first sentence a little bit quieter to show compassion, but I’m reading it as if you had an attitude on the words “your tone is”
OK...
> but on this topic I much prefer the freedom of movement that I get to enjoy in the U.S.
Well, that didn't take long. Or are you assuming that's not a side?
In my social circles, it very much is. My understanding of facts leads me to believe COVID-19 is a great enough "plague" to warrant lockdown measures.
People who share your opinion often write these responses out as "extremely risk-averse", but many disease experts vehemently disagree.
To put that in context, let's consider your next statement:
> Many people die for various reasons.
In the United States, we keep track generally of how people die. The top three causes of death[1] in 2018 were heart disease at 655,381, cancer at 599,274, and accidents at 167,127.
So far, COVID-19 has surpassed accidents at 229,238 deaths[2].
This isn't about preventing death no matter the cost. It's about taking reasonable measures to slow what has become the third leading cause of death for Americans.
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm [2] https://covidtracking.com/data/national
That is what the lockdowns are to prevent, and as a European I much prefer taking a month at home to prevent such a catastrophe.
She's going to die. Hopefully, peacefully in her sleep. If she gets the covid she'll die in horrible agony, drowning in her own dissolving lungs.
I'm "averse" to that form of death, for my mom, for anyone.
>basically sounded
You whittled down this persons post to a basically sounded. When you discard information you create your own vacuum. The person said nothing about a full reopening and instead was pointing out how travel should not be limited like other countries who have and are still in worse situations.
>is that not
And talking in weird negatives doesn’t help your case either.
Further the virus can remain viable on surfaces for days, weeks if frozen. How does testing (combined with the above, ppl not getting tested) help in any way to know where the virus is. I think it will identify hotspots but then what. Texas was a hit spot and still had 4000 cases/day. Testing didn’t help reduce case count, but it did indirectly limit the effectiveness of the emergency room...
Pulmonologist told me I had lung scarring and I had to do breathing exercises. Hmm what else happened. There was also stabbing back pain. My feet and hands were tingly and numb for two weeks, I lost all feeling below my knees....
But the pcr and igG tests all came back negative. Doc thinks pcr test was too late and serology test was false negative. At this point I don’t care about the tests I know what I experienced and it matches up to other bad covid experiences
Forgot to add, I have pericarditis now and have been told to rest and go easy for the remainder of the year
That's operationally the same thing.
In other words, if that belief is wrong they're still killing people.
Let's be cautious. Once we have good testing we can know where the virus is and contain it without such a drastic quarantine. That's the rational, non-partisan thing to do.