Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

Re:Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided ... by scrooched_moose on Saturday November 07, 2020 @04:27PM (#25019598)

That's really interesting, I hadn't sliced it that way yet.

I know FiveThirtyEight allocates undecideds evenly - if 8% respond undecided they assume 4% will break Biden and 4% will break Trump. In one of the podcasts they discussed this assumption and it's what they have found to be the most accurate historically.

We might be seeing a shift towards that no longer being true - maybe 75% break red and 25% break blue now.

Edit: Also, It looks like Jorgensen (Libertarian) significantly underperformed her polling (~3% > ~1%) in the first few states I spot checked. If those voters broke for Trump, that makes up about 2% of the error. That'd take a lot more in depth checking though.

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Re:Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided ... by evgen on Saturday November 07, 2020 @06:15PM (#25020718)

Probably worth noting that the asymmetric break of the undecideds in 2016 was what won the election for Trump. There were a lot of undecided voters and a lot of them decided for Trump late in the process so models that assumed a traditional 50-50 split were wrong.

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Re:Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided ... by cloudwizard on Saturday November 07, 2020 @07:52PM (#25021624)

It breaks against the least popular. Clinton was a known unpopular. Now that everyone knows Trump, he was the least popular.

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Re:Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided ... by humanrebar on Saturday November 07, 2020 @07:54PM (#25021641)

Or they were decided and weren't forthright about it.

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