The problem that has appeared again is that without a representative sample of information gathered, it doesn't matter how fancy your models are, you will not have accurate results. And quantifying how unrepresentative your sample is basically impossible to figure out in this situation.

> quantifying how unrepresentative your sample is basically impossible

Yeah, so... numeromancy.

Maybe they should poll about what the person will vote, but rather what the persons opinions are in general and then estimate based on that who will they vote for.

I am betting Facebook or Google would be able to better calculate the outcome than any polling firm. Bring in all the data they collect on each internet user, I am sure they can model the likelihood of voting and where the user is leaning.