How does the prosecution prove my intent to circumvent compliance orders? How do they prove that I moved the coins, or prove that I ordered the moving of the coins?
Without evidence, this is quite impossible.
That doesn't just happen.
There will be more orders. Who had access to the wallet, etc... Wiretaps, observation, all of it is part of the game now.
In short, investigation will continue, as well all available means and methods applied to better understand who moved the coins and why they were moved.
That is likely to be an expensive, potentially freedom limiting, time.
Being unable to prove it NOW doesn't mean forever being unable to prove things.
Good luck with that game. It's very difficult, time consuming, dangerous, and expensive to play. Your opponents are willing to play hard indefinitely.
Best not benefit from the moved coins in the future.
Both implication and deduction are available legal means too. Remember that part.
Mix it all one wants. It remains extremely difficult to avoid others knowing value, otherwise unaccounted for, finding it's way back. That plus a shake down of everyone the person ever knew remains potent, relevant and effective.
I have followed the rough tech developments. None of what I wrote is impacted too much. Obtaining real world value of any significance is where all the weak points are, and where long established means and methods play well.
People are super leaky. Records everywhere, redundant in many cases too.
Like I said, good luck!
There are no longer "entry" and "exit" points because everyone uses it and accepts it. Crypto is a good as cash. Anything you can do with a suitcase full of illicit hundred dollar bills today, you can do with your phone tomorrow.
The trade of "illegal" assets goes on and will continue to go on to the end of time, whether that's marijuana or prostitution services. The spectrum of legality will vary in different parts of the world. Like many contrabands, there won't be enough resources to enforce prohibition of it, the population may not see the point of its illegality (as there is not an obvious social cost), and eventually the tides turn.
What else can they invoke? Any other crimes? Maybe several very expensive, time consuming, personally exposing investigations start up.
Punitive methods will be on the table. I am not speaking highly of that, but will say it definitely happens.
You are quite correct in that a conviction requires more than intent.
However, intent is what differentiates crimes and it's an important part of any discussion of this kind.
You will note successful prosecutions can happen sans explicit proof of acts.
There is a solid case against that, but we all know it can, does, will continue to happen.
Finally! In more abstract scenarios like this, I wager intent will carry considerable weight too, and it will due to the lack of physicality.