It’s hard to determine what’ll happen due to pandemic + remote work, but historically nearby counties with lower taxes have always been the biggest risk for high tax municipalities. Think less “I’m leaving NYC to go to Michigan” and more “I’ll move to New Jersey and commute into NYC”.

But again, the pandemic and rise of remote work makes this hard to predict.

They said SF, not SF Bay area. I'm certain the city of SF will be seeing a loss of jobs as they move to Oakland, East Bay, Peninsula and South Bay.

Maybe, but is the rest of the Bay area enough better that they can trust they won't end up the same way in the near future.

Yes, they are better. Also, this isn't the only silly tax law that SF has.

Contra Costa is full of open space and I believe that many of the cities from Walnut Creek out would bend over backwards to pull in these types of jobs.

There's a mini-silicon valley shaping up in the East Bay along the 580/680 corridor - towns like Dublin, Pleasanton etc are growing rapidly with existing companies and new ones - Oracle, Workday, Snowflake etc are all there.

It helps that they are also much more new housing friendly than SF and SV.

Right! I wasn't thinking about stuff like Bishop Ranch being down there. Yeah, it really does seem like most of the freeway/transit-connected East Bay towns beyond the hills would be very amendable to this type of growth. It really seems like the only exception would be the arc from Orinda to Danville.

Damn! Pretty sure that the rest of the Bay Area isn’t a dumpster fire either.