Take England. I’ve lived in London. There’s a large segment of British social life that revolves around going “down pub”. People will gather at pubs in confined spaces for long periods of time. Those seem like the perfect conditions for community spread. It comes as no surprise to me that England is in another lockdown.
Boer I’m sure weather plays a part on that. Nicer weather and people might go on holiday out do things outdoors but once the weather starts to cool? They’re back to the pub.
I suspect you’ll see patterns like this in other places.
As for your theory in cool climates, well you’re also hitting the climate barrier for high density living and high population centers.
There are outliers (eg Moscow) but generally speaking big cities aren’t in Arctic-like climates.
I don’t know Melbourne at all but o suspect there’s a predilection for pubs, bars, nightclubs and restaurants and there’ll be some relationship there between colder weather and indoor patronage.
I think you're being too specific, pinning it on pubs, etc. It just needs people intermingling in confined spaces of any kind; homes, apartment buildings, workplaces, hospitals/care homes, churches, schools, sporting events, public transportation, and sure pubs/bars too, but any/all of these are conducive to spread.
I've been paying close attention to the weather factor since the epidemic spread beyond China in Feb/March. It was notable that the places that had the biggest outbreaks then (Milan, Qom, NYC, London, Madrid, as well as Wuhan itself) had similar weather in those months to what Melbourne has in winter - cool but not freezing, and not too rainy or humid. When I saw that, I immediately felt Melbourne could be more at risk of a serious outbreak than other Australian cities - all of which have either warmer winters and/or lower population density (EDIT: and also more sunlight in some cases, influencing Vitamin D). Of course, if quarantine was better managed it could have been prevented. But I also find it hard to believe that there was not a single serious lapse in any of the hotels in any of the other cities that were running quarantine.
When weather is raised, people are quick to point out the warmer regions that have had major outbreaks, like India and Brazil. What these places also have his highly dense populations with many people living/working in close quarters, which obviously also facilitates spread. Nutrition/health may also be a major contributor.
As another commenter has pointed out, research has found Victorians to have higher rates of Vitamin D deficiency in winter compared to other states, so weather can play a role in different ways.
Clearly this is a highly complex illness with multiple factors that combine in different ways to influence the outcome.