Well, polls are IMHO not good, betting odds are better I have found, for example the last UK general election the bettering odds had conservatists to win. Yet if you looked at Twitter or Facebook, you would be convinced Labour would win with complete dominance in posts upon those platforms. That day I learned that social media is not representative of the populous at large and only a slanted snapshot and polls are equally not that great. See with polls - people lie, why - many reasons, some tactical, some not bothers and some just to avoid confrontation from easily agitated oppositional types.

AS for America - last visit I made was over a decade ago but I learned to avoid political debate with a passion as people don't do debate and more argue you to death. Even then in the office had a chap come in and almost interrogated me upon political views, even worrying was others warned me of that and I dismissed them. You live you learn and I've found that the older people are - the more they are inclined to avoid such debates as they more often than not become toxic.