Re:Global circulation of influenza viruses in 2020
by sgt101 on Friday October 30, 2020 @06:44PM
(#24947561)
I hope you are right.
But from your link : is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods.
Re:Global circulation of influenza viruses in 2020
by Volundr on Friday October 30, 2020 @10:45PM
(#24948758)
I'd be a little careful with that chart. I was working with the raw data provided on this page: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm, and the CDC warns that even the data going back into August may be incomplete. I'd assume this data comes with the same caveat, so we may well see these numbers increase the reporting comes in.
Edit: from the asterisk on the page you linked: "*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death."
We're already back to average death levels (maybe even below average if the recent provisional numbers hold up):
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Click "percent of expected deaths" column to see.
We thought Covid was an order of magnitude deadlier than the flu, but it's looking more and more like that's not the case. Covid may have hit a large population of vulnerable people with weak immune systems at once, and is currently becoming less deadly as it spreads among younger, healthier populations.
Covid had the element of surprise in the spring, for both immune systems and healthcare systems. Going forward, unless it mutates into some hellish form, it's not likely to continue.