Re:Reverse-engineering the problematic tail behavior of Five...
by comex on Sunday October 25, 2020 @09:08PM
(#24891821)
> The Democratic Party proved it was not as progressive as they thought as Sanders lost the primary.
The FiveThirtyEight forecast for the Democratic primary [1] gave Biden the highest chance of winning for most of the process. He did have a steep drop in the month before Super Tuesday (followed by an equally steep rebound), but still, I wouldn't say the forecast was especially bad. That said, polling is always worse for primaries than general elections, since there are more candidates and fewer voters.
The FiveThirtyEight forecast for the Democratic primary [1] gave Biden the highest chance of winning for most of the process. He did have a steep drop in the month before Super Tuesday (followed by an equally steep rebound), but still, I wouldn't say the forecast was especially bad. That said, polling is always worse for primaries than general elections, since there are more candidates and fewer voters.
[1] https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/