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A comment on Reverse-engineering the problematic tail behavior of Fivethirtyeight forecast. Parent comment

Re:Reverse-engineering the problematic tail behavior of Five... by runawaybottle on Sunday October 25, 2020 @08:55PM (#24891727)
But would Taleb specifically make a one time bet on one particular Black swan? Isn’t the idea the same as venture capitalism, where this idea only works if you do it with all possible black swans?

You’d have to be crazy to take this one specific bet, you can only realistically take all possible improbable bets.

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Re:Reverse-engineering the problematic tail behavior of Five... by TTPrograms on Monday October 26, 2020 @12:01AM (#24892717)
Choosing to engage in these sorts of bets systematically exclusively and not individually only makes sense if you're not maximizing expected return. You also don't know if I engage in these sorts of bets systematically.
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