It is already worse than the GFC in 2009. UK GDP dipped 21.7% in Q2, NZ ~13%, and the US ~10%. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-health-economy

Where it ends is anyone's guess, and the worst part will be the second and third order effects it won't be super easy to predict. Things like pension/401K/Superannuation funds with high Commercial real estate exposure leading to reduced retirement income, state pension funds that suffer as big US cities see revenue plummet after the population moves, European cities with vastly worse economies - the UK with London hurts there the most - and the cyclical effect of Italian demand reducing French production, reducing French demand reducing Italian production, ad nauseam.

This will be a multi-speed problem, with some countries, cities, counties, suburbs & streets affected far more than others.

If it wasn't so tragic it would be a truly fascinating thing to watch unfold.

> Things like pension/401K/Superannuation funds with high Commercial real estate exposure leading to reduced retirement income,

An interesting second (or even third) order effect of the 2008-2009 financial meltdown was the collapse of many German state banks (Landesbanks I think they're called) which had invested massively in US-based CDCs and the like. I don't think many people would have predicted that happening in 2005-2006.

It is tragic. You’d think that drawing on all our cumulative knowledge and wisdom from the past, we could handle global crises better than we do today. But we clearly have a long ways to go.

> analogy to a cruise ship heading toward shore at full speed. Everyone knows this means the ship will run aground, but few appreciate that given the mass (and thus momentum) the ship would travel far inland just scraping across the ground.

Are you sure you aren’t basing that analogy on the movie Speed 2?

Videos on YouTube actually show that large ships stop astonishingly quickly when driven onto shore (mostly scrap yards).

(mostly scrap yards) -- generally much less mass than a ship that is more seaworthy (a lot of early salvage happens before they get to the scrap shore, ships aren't fully loaded, look at their waterline in the videos). And most importantly much much less velocity (1/2mv^2 goes down rapidly with slower velocity). What is is truly impressive is that they estimate the mass, and know very closely what speed to get them too in order to solidly ground them without wasting a lot of energy getting them going faster than necessary.

The analogy fails to account for the captains investment in wings that makes the ship fly over land (remake offices into appartments with dirt cheap labour).