Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

Re:Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F by api on Sunday October 25, 2020 @06:14PM (#24890472)

There is a mass exodus of people from HCOL cities as jobs go virtual as well as a massive amount of office downsizing.

Residential real estate may be okay in the cities receiving this exodus in the South, Midwest, Texas, Idaho, etc. but as for HCOL cities I’m just not sure. There may be enough demand to at least cushion it.

Commercial will definitely be a bloodbath of epic proportions, especially in formerly hot markets.

Edit: too early for good stats but here are some cities that seem to be receiving HCOL expats as determined by the highly scientific process of observing anecdotes:

Phoenix, Santa Fe, Boise, Denver, Dallas, San Antonio, Austin, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Chicago... I’m sure that list is not exhaustive. Those are just some I have seen.

Those vary in terms of how not-HCOL they are but all of them are much less expensive than California, NYC, or the Seattle area. Much better places to live if you don’t have to live somewhere with $500k to $1.5m “starter homes” and other absurdities. Now that we are discovering that we can actually use this Internet thing, good riddance to that madness.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F by brian-armstrong on Sunday October 25, 2020 @07:07PM (#24890934)

Housing prices are actually already trending back upward in the bay area. I don't think there will really be that much of an exodus. Your company might let you retain most of your salary post-relocation but once you change jobs you'll have far fewer prospects. Also the internet doesn't help with timezone differences.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F by api on Sunday October 25, 2020 @07:44PM (#24891246)

House prices are being buoyed by insanely low rates, but if offices are downsizing CRE is toast.

As for tech hubs, they are now only economically rational if you are high up at a large FAANG or similar company that is able and willing to pay huge salaries.

Startups, bootstrappers, and labors of love are not going to happen there unless they are lavishly funded or only comprised of straight out of college folks willing to live on couches.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F by paul_f on Sunday October 25, 2020 @08:50PM (#24891688)

The exodus is real. The Pinterest lease cancellation was the bellwether.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F by howlgarnish on Sunday October 25, 2020 @10:34PM (#24892343)

There's a lot of variation in that trend. Prices are up for the kinds of places you'd like to WFH indefinitely from (large detached houses in nice neighborhoods), and down for the kinds of places you wouldn't (shoebox studios downtown).

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F by cm2187 on Sunday October 25, 2020 @07:33PM (#24891148)

Might be offset by money printing

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F by dmode on Monday October 26, 2020 @03:59AM (#24893778)

There is no evidence of exodus to other cities. There is exodus to suburban Bay Area where you can still commute 2-3 days a week and buy a 3k sq ft home. Bay Area real estate is no fire now with median price over $1mn and up 20% over last year https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/networth/article/Bay-Ar...

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F by dustingetz on Sunday October 25, 2020 @07:34PM (#24891167)

How about Cape Town? Bali? Toronto? Athens? Rio? Remote work isn't even close to priced in yet and it's not the cost of living that needs to readjust - it's the salaries!

[ Parent | on HN ]