Re:Reverse-engineering the problematic tail behavior of Five...
by abnry on Sunday October 25, 2020 @04:54PM
(#24889800)
If everyone was wrong, it is reasonable to believe a low probability event occurred. However, given the extent to which people predicted a Trump loss (say 1 in 20), which is significantly rarer, given that the event occurred it suggests the model that predicted a Trump win with the greatest probability to likely be a more accurate model.
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