Re:Reverse-engineering the problematic tail behavior of Five...
by ceilingcorner on Sunday October 25, 2020 @01:42PM
(#24888204)
It's still just unclear to me how FiveThirtyEight assigning Trump a ±30% chance of winning can be considered "accurate" or "good".
From my point of view, this is only because said people considered Trump winning so extremely unlikely that 538 getting it sort of right appears exceptional. In reality, they were still quite wrong, just slightly less so. Ergo I don't see much value in their model.
I'm seeing the same exact thing today with Biden at a 90% chance of winning.
From my point of view, this is only because said people considered Trump winning so extremely unlikely that 538 getting it sort of right appears exceptional. In reality, they were still quite wrong, just slightly less so. Ergo I don't see much value in their model.
I'm seeing the same exact thing today with Biden at a 90% chance of winning.