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A comment on Reverse-engineering the problematic tail behavior of Fivethirtyeight forecast. Parent comment

Re:Reverse-engineering the problematic tail behavior of Five... by swsieber on Sunday October 25, 2020 @01:06PM (#24887818)
To take it a step further, if that was the forecast 4 days in a row, you would expect it to rain one of those days.
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Re:Reverse-engineering the problematic tail behavior of Five... by warrenq on Sunday October 25, 2020 @05:24PM (#24890012)
Not necessarily.

There is a 0.750.750.75*0.75 or a 31% chance of no rain at all

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Re:Reverse-engineering the problematic tail behavior of Five... by swsieber on Monday October 26, 2020 @10:31AM (#24896523)
I'm not saying it's certain, but it's what I'd expect. It raining on one day out of 4 is the most common case.
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