Re:Electoral College Decision Tree
by nl on Saturday October 24, 2020 @09:20PM
(#24883148)
> Even state polling in 2016 was pretty good, historically. The reason to think otherwise is that there was a specific error (non-college white voters swinging to R) that happened not to be tracked well (those voters don't respond as well to polling) nor accounted for (most pollsters didn't weight for education). And it happened to be most concentrated in a few states in the upper midwest that were close to the tipping point. AND it happened to be JUST ENOUGH to have predicted a very narrow (sub 1% in PA/WI/MI) win incorrectly.
Yes, this is a good summary, and I'm well aware of what went wrong. I ran a prediction project for a few years so I realise how hard this job is.
But just because it's hard doesn't mean we shouldn't recognize the issues.
My argument is that historically state level polls have always had issues but have rarely mattered.
> Remember that in 2012 the polls were "wrong" in the opposite direction (undercounting Obama votes by a bit) and no one cared.
Exactly my point!
If you look at the data on this, the state level polls had even worse accuracy. The average error was 1.6%, compared to 0.8% for national polls.
Yes, this is a good summary, and I'm well aware of what went wrong. I ran a prediction project for a few years so I realise how hard this job is.
But just because it's hard doesn't mean we shouldn't recognize the issues.
My argument is that historically state level polls have always had issues but have rarely mattered.
> Remember that in 2012 the polls were "wrong" in the opposite direction (undercounting Obama votes by a bit) and no one cared.
Exactly my point!
If you look at the data on this, the state level polls had even worse accuracy. The average error was 1.6%, compared to 0.8% for national polls.
As you note, no one really cared.
https://www.pewresearch.org/2009/06/25/perils-of-polling-in-...