It's not necessary to "believe" anything when it comes to Florida. We have the actual hard number of ballots requested and returned, broken down by party registration. More Democrats are voting via mail. They're also voting in-person in equal numbers to Republicans, at least so far.

I think we are in agreement here. That's what my link shows.

My understanding is that not all states collect party affiliation when sending ballots though. It's possible I'm misinformed though.