Re:Electoral College Decision Tree
by Balgair on Friday October 23, 2020 @07:03PM
(#24875304)
That tool has been a total productivity drain on me since it was launched.
When I play around with it, the real 'turning point' states tend to be PA and FL. You can fill in the likely EC votes and the chances don't really change all that much. I mean, CA going Blue is not a surprise.
But when you fill in PA or FL for Donny, then the whole race changes. If FL or PA go Red, then Donny has ~1/3 chance, if one goes Blue, then it's 1/100 [0].
PA is unlikely to be called on election night. But FL is very likely to be called. So that is the one to watch. Just like every other election, really.
It's a great tool and I'd totally suggest spending some time with it. Kudos to the team that built it!
[0] Note that these models are updated all the time by 538 as new polls roll in.
When I play around with it, the real 'turning point' states tend to be PA and FL. You can fill in the likely EC votes and the chances don't really change all that much. I mean, CA going Blue is not a surprise.
But when you fill in PA or FL for Donny, then the whole race changes. If FL or PA go Red, then Donny has ~1/3 chance, if one goes Blue, then it's 1/100 [0].
PA is unlikely to be called on election night. But FL is very likely to be called. So that is the one to watch. Just like every other election, really.
It's a great tool and I'd totally suggest spending some time with it. Kudos to the team that built it!
[0] Note that these models are updated all the time by 538 as new polls roll in.