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A comment on Electoral College Decision Tree. Parent comment

Re:Electoral College Decision Tree by gpm on Friday October 23, 2020 @07:03PM (#24875299)
I'm not sure what you mean by "official" polls, but in 538's polling average Trump is only leading Texas by 0.5%.

I also tend to like 538's model. 538's model gives Trump an average vote share of 2.2% more than biden (more than the polling average because the model thinks the demographics and fundamentals favor trump) but still gives Biden a 35% chance of winning. Biden winning is not very likely, but it's also not a not very small chance.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/...

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Re:Electoral College Decision Tree by rootusrootus on Friday October 23, 2020 @08:27PM (#24875841)
> Biden winning is not very likely, but it's also not a not very small chance

Coincidentally, that's pretty close to the odds that 538 gave to Trump winning overall in 2016.

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