Re:Electoral College Decision Tree
by nradov on Friday October 23, 2020 @01:04PM
(#24871557)
Do you have a reference for a good analysis of that hypothesis? On the surface it would seem like a plausible explanation for the 2016 election results, but I don't know how we could prove or disprove it.
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FiveThirtyEight published a well-sourced summary a month ago: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-supporters-arent-...
The main reasons to disbelieve the shy Trump voter hypothesis are that there's not a big difference in responses to live phone polls vs online polls, and that polls missed Senate and Gubernatorial races in 2016 by about the same amount as they missed the Presidential race.