Re:Electoral College Decision Tree
by wtallis on Friday October 23, 2020 @12:30PM
(#24871204)
> They gave Trump 28.6 which was beyond problematic.
I don't see where you've said anything that comes close to supporting such a strong assertion.
2016 was FiveThirtyEight's third time forecasting a presidential election. Getting one of those three "wrong" when they gave themselves slightly less than one in three chances of getting the 2016 election "wrong" doesn't seem at all surprising. It sounds like you're demanding that FiveThirtyEight make their forecasts deliberately underconfident but still expecting them to call the correct winner every time.
I don't see where you've said anything that comes close to supporting such a strong assertion.
2016 was FiveThirtyEight's third time forecasting a presidential election. Getting one of those three "wrong" when they gave themselves slightly less than one in three chances of getting the 2016 election "wrong" doesn't seem at all surprising. It sounds like you're demanding that FiveThirtyEight make their forecasts deliberately underconfident but still expecting them to call the correct winner every time.