Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates

Re:Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates by dragonwriter on Tuesday October 20, 2020 @10:58PM (#24844360)

If low-risk groups engaged in more risky behavior and no other factor changed, you'd expect death rates of hospitalized patients to drop because a larger share of the hospitalized would be from groups at lower risk of death if hospitalized with COVID.

Also, if hospitals learned more about interventions (like that ventilation wasn't appropriate as early or in as many cases as initially thought), and nothing else changed, same result.

Or if at-risk populations became more cautious, and/or less exposed due to policy (like better approaches to nursing homes), same result.

So, this is not even a tiny bit surprising. Nor does it indicate any reduced need for control measures.

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Re:Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates by legerdemain on Wednesday October 21, 2020 @03:17AM (#24845487)

The article says the analysis controlled for age. Survival has improved in every age range.

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Re:Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates by dragonwriter on Wednesday October 21, 2020 @05:52AM (#24846226)

> The article says the analysis controlled for age

Even if age was the only risk factor (in which case controlling for age would negate the first and third points), the second point would cover that. But age isn't the only risk factor, so all three points are still relevant.

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Re:Studies Point to Big Drop in Covid-19 Death Rates by legerdemain on Wednesday October 21, 2020 @03:37PM (#24851251)

I don't think your second point is up for argument. We're not trying to disambiguate whether doctors are getting better at treating COVID or COVID is itself getting easier for doctors to treat.

Age is a strong predictor of COVID fatality, either directly or through correlates. In every US county whose stats I've spot-checked, deaths go up with age. It's also one of the best predictors, given that advanced age is much more common in populations than stronger, but more selective factors.

Thus, controlling for age and nevertheless observing a reduction in mortality should be taken as an indicator that COVID is becoming comparatively more medically tractable.

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