There's probably some interesting work to be done more from a survival analysis angle. I know I haven't seen much work based on stuff like:

https://www.academia.edu/37585525/Flexible_Regression_Models...

I do generally find these top-down team-strength models quite primitive though. Teams are made up of players, plans, all sorts of under-studied interactions. I would also say that there are enough quant jobs in football now that you don't really need to gamble to make a living. :)