Re:Predicting Football Results with Statistical Modelling
by data_spy on Tuesday October 20, 2020 @05:01PM
(#24842326)
The thing is, the size of the wager and the payouts are just as important. I was never a sports gambler, but spent two years counting cards at blackjack in rural casinos as my job. This plays out with the Kelly Criterion: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
So you can have inefficient odds as the house, and still win. Did the models also provide optimal bet size given the probability of winning?
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Re:Predicting Football Results with Statistical Modelling
by thom on Tuesday October 20, 2020 @05:09PM
(#24842369)
Larger syndicates also have the problem that it's not always easy to wager as much money as they'd like on a small handful of leagues. So it becomes about how you can accumulate data and insight into a broader set of competitions.
Re:Predicting Football Results with Statistical Modelling
by hogFeast on Tuesday October 20, 2020 @05:19PM
(#24842437)
A lot of the newer syndicates spread themselves quite thin afaik. They maybe don't have the contacts to get liquidity/early prices so they do lots of sports (Tennis and Cricket being two that appear to be growing...again, afaik).
I have heard that the largest syndicate has groups that only cover one football team. I have no idea whether this is true or how/where you get the liquidity to justify this.
Re:Predicting Football Results with Statistical Modelling
by marktangotango on Tuesday October 20, 2020 @05:54PM
(#24842730)
This is the reality of how the bettors move the lines (ie odds on offer), large bets or a lot of small bets will move the line. In effect the final line at kickoff (or whatever) is kind of a distilled, crowd sourced expectation for the result of the match. The key is to identify advantageous lines when the major books publish them and place bets before the "public" moves the line.