This. The US's biggest future threat isn't having its military production choked off in a conflict. It's having its military complex become irrelevant as the world moves towards a model where money and consumer technology become the main avenues for influence and control, and where the moment the US tries to flex its military muscle it gets put on a decades-long blacklist by members of the global economy for starting a mess.

>it gets put on a decades-long blacklist by members of the global economy for starting a mess.

because that worked so well for the weimar republic?

> The destructive capacity of modern great powers effectively limits the timeline of any large war to either hours(nuclear bombardment) or weeks ( precision bombing of all military and industrial targets )

The 100-year history of strategic bombing theory has consistently held that once you start strategic bombing, the enemy's will or ability to fight will collapse very quickly. The actual application of strategic bombing has consistently failed to live up to those expectations, with the atomic bombings of Japan being the only example people give of countries capitulating due to strategic bombing, and even then it's still debatable what factors induced it to surrender.

It should also be pointed out that people saying great power wars will be swift and decisive is usually followed by a great power war that is exactly the opposite of swift and decisive.

I have a suspicion in a future war a swarm of cheap drones will do things like take out aircraft carriers and waste a large portion of that arsenal.