I agree with the general thrust of what you're saying in terms of honesty, but I want to point out that it's not clear that the ground truth fits/supports this framing.

If you look at something like https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/interactives/u-s-unauth... and sort the list any way you want: There are several reliable D/R states with almost no undocumented immigrant population, and several D/R states with 3%+.