The data, as amazed by organizations like the National Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers, tends to show that prosecutors accept upwards of 80% of charges submitted for prosecution by law enforcement and that grand jury’s will indict upwards of 95% of cases presented to them. [1] The common phrasing amongst lawyers is that a grand jury will indict a ham sandwich and that a DA will accept as many charges at the highest level they can and that they’ll see what might stick later.

1 - Those grand jury numbers are why the Breonna Taylor non-indictment is so angering

Interesting. So using the rough numbers, an average of 68% of people (85% * 80%) arrested will agree to a plea agreement.

That is probably a fair assumption of the average on a national scale. I know in my jurisdiction it is somewhere near 88%.

As long as you remember "can I even get a conviction" does not mean, "do I even think the defendant is guilty".

It means just that - "can I even get a conviction".

>So you'd expect a relatively high conviction rate just based on the fact that cases where conviction is unlikely are filtered out before they ever get to trial.

Except non-prosecution is a tiny percentage of cases where no trial is held. Only 2% of Federal criminal cases actually go to trial[0], and 97% end with the defendant pleading to a lesser charge.

Overall, something like 90-95% of all criminal cases in the US end with a plea bargain[1]

Usually, the prosecutor uses the threat of jail or prison (for more minor offenses) or the threat of lengthy (15 years? Life?) for more serious ones to force a defendant to plead guilty to a lesser charge. And this is true even if the defendant is innocent of the crime charged.

And when someone is poor and can't afford bail, prosecutors can exert even more pressure to force a plea bargain[2], as the defendant (whether or not they actually committed a crime) will sit in jail either until they agree to plead guilty to something or go to trial.

How long would you keep your job if you were sitting in jail? How long before you couldn't pay your rent/mortgage without income from that job? Or even worse, if you're a single parent, how long could you retain custody of your children?

And it just gets worse. Should you plead guilty, you now have a criminal record and most employers won't hire you.

And remember, these are people who haven't been convicted of a crime, and no court or jury has heard their case. Yet many people's lives are ruined just because they're poor and can't afford to pay bail.

Edit: Fixed percentage of overall cases which end with a plea bargain.

[0] https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/06/11/only-2-of-f...

[1] https://bja.ojp.gov/sites/g/files/xyckuh186/files/media/docu... [PDF]

[2] https://bja.ojp.gov/sites/g/files/xyckuh186/files/media/docu...