Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response

Re:Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications fo... by elcritch on Thursday October 08, 2020 @11:13PM (#24726394)

Taking the data from the linked table for say 35-44 year olds is 1,798 deaths out of ~43 million population bracket, excluding influenza cases. That’s a 99.9956% survival rate. Taking all covid-19 and influenza it’s still a 99.9903% survival rate.

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Re:Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications fo... by lostdog on Thursday October 08, 2020 @11:39PM (#24726549)

Nope, you're not even close to calculating the survival rate correctly. The population of ~43 million is the entire population, not the set of people who were infected.

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Re:Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications fo... by elcritch on Friday October 09, 2020 @05:02AM (#24728092)

Schucks, you’re right, I didn’t read the fine print on the CDC site. Still it’s not as far off as that sort of error would seem to indicate.

According to this Sep 2020 article on reason.com (1) they quote CDC numbers of a 99.98 survival rate (0.02% IFR) for 20-to-49-year-olds. Or a 99.997% survival rate (0.003 IFR) percent among people 19 or less.

1: https://www.google.com/amp/s/reason.com/2020/09/29/the-lates...

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Re:Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications fo... by lostdog on Saturday October 10, 2020 @03:31PM (#24741252)

Glad you took another look!

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