Re:Making the Monty Hall problem weirder but obvious
by Myto on Thursday October 08, 2020 @07:43PM
(#24725173)
You reject my argument without being able to point to any flaw in it. Because you and a lot of other people do not accept or have not thought of it. I can't really help with that.
If it's about popularity instead of logical argument, of course I'm not the only one who thinks this. There was a really good blog post that laid it out but I can't find it currently. Instead, here's a scientific paper I found just now, the introduction contains the same argument I'm making. And it's far from the only place which agrees.
> The problem posed in this way may lead to a lot of controversy, mainly because we do not know whether the behavior of the host had anything to do with your first choice or not.
> Perhaps the host would open a door with a goat only when your first choice was right. In this case, it was not a good choice to change doors.
EDIT: Also several people have pointed this same thing out elsewhere in this thread.
If it's about popularity instead of logical argument, of course I'm not the only one who thinks this. There was a really good blog post that laid it out but I can't find it currently. Instead, here's a scientific paper I found just now, the introduction contains the same argument I'm making. And it's far from the only place which agrees.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/2195-5468-2-2
> The problem posed in this way may lead to a lot of controversy, mainly because we do not know whether the behavior of the host had anything to do with your first choice or not.
> Perhaps the host would open a door with a goat only when your first choice was right. In this case, it was not a good choice to change doors.
EDIT: Also several people have pointed this same thing out elsewhere in this thread.