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A comment on Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response. Parent comment

Re:Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications fo... by xadhominemx on Thursday October 08, 2020 @05:23PM (#24724080)
Well 20% of NYC had COVID and we are currently seeing outbreaks in communities that have relaxed social distancing measures, so it seems obvious that her calculations are incorrect.
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Re:Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications fo... by salmon30salmon on Thursday October 08, 2020 @08:14PM (#24725404)
That’s part of the thesis of the article. Some populations mix more than others. In the mixing populations the threshold will be higher. In populations with limited mixing, lower.

20% of NYC can have the virus and the general level for herd immunity can still be what is postulated. NYC is incredibly dense compared to the rest of the USA and as such will naturally have more mixing and a higher threshold than say Topeka, Kansas

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Re:Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications fo... by xadhominemx on Friday October 09, 2020 @09:38AM (#24729782)
The USA as a whole is already at ~10-15% and the rate of infections increased since late summer, and we are not even in flu season
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Re:Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications fo... by timr on Friday October 09, 2020 @04:59PM (#24734367)
Just because the US average is X% doesn't mean that the every community in the whole country is X%. There's clearly heterogeneity in the data.
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Re:Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications fo... by xadhominemx on Monday October 12, 2020 @10:46AM (#24754842)
Ok but I assume that is taken into account in your 15-20% estimate
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