Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications for the Covid-19 Response

Re:Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications fo... by streptomycin on Thursday October 08, 2020 @11:14AM (#24719842)

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v... was a similar study a couple months ago that estimated 10-20%, rather than the 34.2-47.5% in this paper. The bigger question is how long immunity lasts, which is still not known.

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Re:Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications fo... by rossdavidh on Thursday October 08, 2020 @02:40PM (#24722300)

Tests this year on blood from people who had SARS in 2003, indicated that 17 years later they still had T-cell responses . On the other hand, coronaviruses which are experienced as "colds" apparently have a lot less retention of immune system recognition. Optimistic scenario is that the immune system is "smart" enough to recognize which infections are a big deal which must be remembered forever, and which are not. Pessimistic scenario is we got lucky with SARS, and may not with Covid-19.

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Re:Updating Herd Immunity Models for the US: Implications fo... by nradov on Thursday October 08, 2020 @11:30AM (#24720044)

Immunity isn't a binary condition which lasts for a certain length of time and then stops. It exists on a spectrum. The best evidence we have indicates that most recovered patients will retain a significant level of immunity for at least several years.

https://www.jimmunol.org/content/early/2020/09/03/jimmunol.2...

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