First, you did not point out the specific page where it says that “nearly all” violent offenders will commit another violent crime. This is a 42 page report. Second, I could not find any statistic in that report that comes even remotely close to describing that “most” violent offenders will commit another violent crime. Some states have recidivism rates approaching 50% (for ALL offenders, violent and nonviolent) but those numbers include technical parole violations and new non-violent crime.

Please indicate the page where the data supports your statement.

sorry, it's a typo the "nearly have" was supposed to be " nearly half." I don't believe even with the typo someone would likely see "nearly all."

If you want a more summarized article you can find one here https://www.ussc.gov/research/research-reports/recidivism-am...

I originally posted the pew one as I feel the chance of biased against offenders is lower from their research, but this article does a better job of summarizing, as well as offering their full report.

After looking over the data again, it seems that nearly half will commit another crime but only 28.4% will be a violent one.

with these adjusted numbers, it still is inaccurate to say "...Chances are she would be less likely to engage in violence than the people you currently sit next to,..."

It would be interesting to see what the recidivism data on longer sentences is. There is a big difference between someone that served a 90 day sentence for something, then goes and commits a serious crime, and someone that serves 13 years for something. There is a much more significant lesson in the 13 years. Also, crime rates decrease among populations as they age. The mere fact that people who serve longer sentences are older when they get out would have a further push down on crime rates among that population.

You don't get 90 days for a felony, something that short is usually served in local lockup (city/County) and aren't typically included in these sort of stats.

But there is data on people doing under 5 years, and if you compared to that you would likely be right, but don't have the data to prove it.

Many, many people get 90, 60, 30 days or even probation for felonies as part of a plea agreement. Felony simply means that the maximum sentence is over 1 year. There is even a term for it..”felony probation”.

That is a really gross oversimplification of the term, a felony is a serious crime that can result in long term punishment or capital punishment and no less than one year (minimum not maximum) sentence (which can be less due to plea agreements, and time served before conviction) the distinction between felony and misdemeanor is the servity of the crimes classification not just the length of sentence.

There is also a further sub division of felony based on a class code which determines sentencing.

Regardless, it is very rare for someone doing that little time to do so in a state of federal prison, and most studies on this data are based on the department of prisons data, which is why it's not typically included.

Many felons get probation after serving time, this is the only term I've heard felony probation applied to, what are you referencing to mean?

Actually, that is not a gross oversimplification. According to [1], whether a crime has maximum sentence of over 1 year is precisely how the US government determines what crimes are and are not felonies:

In the United States, where the felony/misdemeanor distinction is still widely applied, the federal government defines a felony as a crime punishable by death or imprisonment in excess of one year. If punishable by exactly one year or less, it is classified as a misdemeanor. The classification is based upon a crime's potential sentence, so a crime remains classified as a felony even if a defendant receives a sentence of less than a year of incarceration.

Also, no, I wasn’t referring to post-release supervision (which is usually referred to as parole or supervised release). Many hundreds of thousands of people every year receive a sentence of probation for felonies, primarily because countless “tough on crime” measures have increased maximum sentences for minor crimes, which automatically turned them into felonies where they used to be misdemeanors.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Felony