If you think that was luck, then you didn't understand the difference between CFR and IFR.
The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is the fraction of reported cases that result in death. This is easier to measure. And if you're sick enough to become a reported case, it is the best back of the envelope estimate of how likely you are to die.
The Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) is the fraction of infected people that will die. For estimating how many will wind up dead if you hit herd immunity, that is the relevant figure. It is also harder to produce.
Early on we were seeing CFRs in the 5-10% range. That is the figure that you remember
But the first estimates of the IFR was an analysis of the Diamond Princess. It estimated an IFR of around 0.5%. In late March, Fauci reported that it was about 1%. Both estimates had significant error bars. The figures that Neil Ferguson used in his model was in the same range. All of this happened while we saw CFRs in the 5-10% range.
And therefore there should have been no surprise from the beginning that the CDC estimate of the IFR for the Spring would come out where it did, 0.65%.
Anyone who claimed to know what the fatality rate was back then is full of it. Even in places that had gotten the spread of the virus under control, there were still significant numbers of unresolved cases. And it will likely be another year or two before we have a good idea what IFR is, as COVID has demonstrated differing levels of severity in different populations, and adequate health care capacity has show to have a large impact, which large portions of the world do not have access to.
0.5% was therefore the best available early estimate, with a large error bar.
Where are you seeing the CDC say that please?
0-19 years: 0.00003
20-49 years: 0.0002
50-69 years: 0.005
70+ years: 0.054
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...
That's the bulk of the deaths. Add in the other age groups and, if you do the numbers correctly, you should get close to my figure. (With a small difference because you're quoting updated numbers and I'm quoting figures that are a few months old.)
> The parameters in the scenarios:
> Are estimates intended to support public health preparedness and planning.
> Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19.
We are freaking lucky that COVID’s death rate is by the lower end of all the estimates. If the actual rate was closer to what Italy was seeing, or even a smaller fraction of thst, Sweden would have had far more dead.
And the death rate is down because we understand the virus better and so are able to take actions that do not involve locking down to control it. And also it wasn’t a massive emergency at this time with massive shortages of PPE etc.