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A comment on Compact nuclear fusion reactor is 'very likely to work,' studies suggest. Parent comment

Re:Compact nuclear fusion reactor is 'very likely to work,' ... by tunesmith on Tuesday September 29, 2020 @06:34PM (#24633848)
That's a version of "The Wait Calculation". For instance, it would be a waste of resources to build a starship right now to visit the closest other solar systems, because given our current maximum velocity and our rate of technological increase, it's a virtual certainty that in the future we would be able to build a second starship that would catch up and overtake it.

Eventually there is a break even point (for the closest solar systems, last I checked, it's around 400 years), but in order to know what it is you need to know the amount of time to reach the goal and your rate of increase. I don't know if there's a way to estimate that with fusion research.

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Re:Compact nuclear fusion reactor is 'very likely to work,' ... by ada1981 on Tuesday September 29, 2020 @07:01PM (#24634069)
This is a great mental model. I'm curious about applying this in areas of one's own life. Certain things that you'd actually accomplish faster, by starting later and leveraging the compounded time / resources that would have been spent pursuing it earlier.
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Re:Compact nuclear fusion reactor is 'very likely to work,' ... by rrdharan on Tuesday September 29, 2020 @09:21PM (#24634907)
The 80,000 hours folks generally apply this kind of reasoning to explain why it’s better for most people to just focus on a corporate job, stockpile a ton of cash, and donate it all when you die, instead of quitting to join a cause / non-profit - if your only goal is to optimize your impact.

Obviously people are free to choose differently and there are exceptions, unique circumstances etc.

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Re:Compact nuclear fusion reactor is 'very likely to work,' ... by barry-cotter on Wednesday September 30, 2020 @02:14AM (#24636139)
I’m reasonably confident your summary of their advice is out of date. They now believe most organizations are talent constrained and the difference between the best and second best candidate is often very large so most people should be trying to work on hard problems fast if they can.
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Re:Compact nuclear fusion reactor is 'very likely to work,' ... by baking on Wednesday September 30, 2020 @12:14AM (#24635637)
OT, but if solar panels last for over 20 years and get at least 5% cheaper every year, you save more money by waiting to install them than you do by installing them.
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Re:Compact nuclear fusion reactor is 'very likely to work,' ... by phicoh on Wednesday September 30, 2020 @07:08AM (#24637473)
That does not factor in the money you make with the solar panel. I.e., if having a solar panel nets a profit of 10% of the cost of the solar panel, than installing one now makes more money than waiting a year.
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