Yeah, it’s a bet on which API is more durable. Some other minor factors are that you might want a newer SDL anyway, because the library comes with a database of different models of gamepads (https://github.com/gabomdq/SDL_GameControllerDB) and if you link against SDL dynamically, you get support for newer gamepad models for “free”.

One of the other factors here is that the ability to play old games is in some sense about the preservation of culture. If you have an x64 Linux binary that uses SDL + OpenGL, I have a strong feeling that you’ll be able to play it 20 years from now, although it might inconvenient to get working.