Re:Are we living at the 'hinge of history'?
by libraryofbabel on Sunday September 27, 2020 @02:03PM
(#24608688)
I agree; life is easy and a little bit boring for more and more people in the 21st century, unless they specifically choose to do risky things. I think that is a very good thing. I also agree that the media tends to report on bad things and downplays progress. However, I think what is underreported is not the 21st century inventions you mention, which get media coverage, but rather deep long-term global health improvements that began in the 20th century and have been continuing since then: metrics like infant mortality, food security, life expectancy, the eradication of polio. A great source for this is: https://ourworldindata.org/
As for specific 21st century technologies, let’s take those you mention one by one:
> Unprecedented access to information;
Yes. Although this was the growth of the internet and the web, both late-20th century technologies.
> - Instant high fidelity communication and work/business;
Same as the first point.
> - Private and ever-cheaper space flight;
To do basically 20th-century things like putting satellites into orbit... but cheaper! I hope we do something genuinely new this century like going to Mars - but that’s some way off.
> - True automation (it's only the beginning of the 21st, I bet on automation hitting hard mid century);
You’ll need to be more specific but sounds like this isn’t here yet? I agree automation has been improving but again, it’s a long-term trend.
> - AR/VR (which will likely become the escape of choice for much of the world later this century);
Sure, although sounds like this is more about future promise than what we have now, which is a fun but niche entertainment.
> - Renewable energy that most can afford (it's already realistic for everyone to be self-sufficient);
This is good but... again 20th-century tech becoming better and cheaper.
> - Viable artificial/grown organs (for use in medicine and food production);
Promising research but still a way off from becoming a routine medical treatment.
So... I think all of these things are great but, as I mentioned in another reply, they just don’t have the world-historical impact of key 20th century tech like the Haber-Bosch Process, or antibiotics, or powered flight, or effective birth control. I think we are in a phase where we’re mostly improving what we already have (which is great!). Maybe a novel 21st-century technology will come along with that kind of impact, but I don’t think it’s here yet.
As for specific 21st century technologies, let’s take those you mention one by one:
> Unprecedented access to information;
Yes. Although this was the growth of the internet and the web, both late-20th century technologies.
> - Instant high fidelity communication and work/business;
Same as the first point.
> - Private and ever-cheaper space flight;
To do basically 20th-century things like putting satellites into orbit... but cheaper! I hope we do something genuinely new this century like going to Mars - but that’s some way off.
> - True automation (it's only the beginning of the 21st, I bet on automation hitting hard mid century);
You’ll need to be more specific but sounds like this isn’t here yet? I agree automation has been improving but again, it’s a long-term trend.
> - AR/VR (which will likely become the escape of choice for much of the world later this century);
Sure, although sounds like this is more about future promise than what we have now, which is a fun but niche entertainment.
> - Renewable energy that most can afford (it's already realistic for everyone to be self-sufficient);
This is good but... again 20th-century tech becoming better and cheaper.
> - Viable artificial/grown organs (for use in medicine and food production);
Promising research but still a way off from becoming a routine medical treatment.
So... I think all of these things are great but, as I mentioned in another reply, they just don’t have the world-historical impact of key 20th century tech like the Haber-Bosch Process, or antibiotics, or powered flight, or effective birth control. I think we are in a phase where we’re mostly improving what we already have (which is great!). Maybe a novel 21st-century technology will come along with that kind of impact, but I don’t think it’s here yet.
(Edited for formatting)