You can look at the present day as a loud echo of the end of the Cold War. Today's "hinge" is in large measure the culmination of Putin's revanchist asymmetrical war on the West. If he fails to get his man in America, and if Europe contains the nationalism in Hungary and Poland and passes a "European Magnitsky Act" in response to the poisoning of Navalny, we will see the end of the Putin era, and eventually see Russia join Europe.

Or will see the power center of the West shift to Europe, and a more powerful, and expansionist Russia threaten peace in Europe.