I see no indication that the post presents Covid-19 as fixed. In fact, it focuses purely on the economic effects of Covid, not Covid itself.

It's implicit in the verbiage of us being in "recovery" that the worst is past, no more lockdowns are coming, etc, all of which are... debateable, especially where the US is concerned.

I believe the "recovery" being talked about is an economic one, not from the pandemic itself. Which is also still debatable, but there are tentative signs that there has been some uneven economic improvement; we passed a trough in US unemployment.

I'd be very surprised if more lockdowns came. Lockdowns are useful in only 2 situations:

1. there's a new disease that is spreading rapidly through the population and you want to prevent the healthcare system from becoming overwhelmed while you figure out how to best reduce infection spread and provide treatment

2. you have a small number of cases and a short lockdown will bring the total to 0, which will allow you to fully re-open your economy with no restrictions (New Zealand)

The US is never going to be in situation #2, and we know enough about how to manage the disease now that we aren't going to be in situation #1 again. Right now I live in Boulder, and the university is under lockdown because cases have increased 1000% in the past few weeks, but the rest of the city is operating normally (including indoor dining!) with a low rate of disease spread.

> the university is under lockdown because cases have increased 1000% in the past few weeks

This is exactly what I'm anticipating more of— localized lockdowns because politicians and others are unwilling to act on leading indicators and so need to overcompensate when it's obvious that things are past the point where they've already lost control.

Whether the worst is past or not, there is an ongoing economic recovery. Just look at the charts.

If you believe that isn't going to last, you can short the market. Just be aware that you're betting against the capabilities of the Fed's printing press.

I'm not sure I got the same impression. But I agree definitely we haven't even seen the worst of covid-19 yet. It's currently going up in almost every country and the EU is already higher than in the spring. Schools opening and outdoor dining and recreation pretty much done in a lot of the northern hemisphere for the year it'll be a bumpy ride.

I don't have an opinion how bad the situation is, it's clearly not good. But it's not yet as bad as in spring. How do you measure that it's now in EU at higher level than in the spring? By cases sure, because clearly we got better at testing by now, a lot of people had it in spring that was not tested. I think much better comparison point (at the very moment) is deaths per million people [1], see the link.

[1]: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToS...

That's a good point. I was going by cases because to me that implies that some action needs to be taken again to stop runaway exponential growth again. It's hard to compare almost any numbers since testing is better and treatments are better.

No, certainly haven't seen the worst yet. By early November the Black Death will certainly pale in comparison to covid. Until at least the 4th, then it's smooth sailing when Joe brings us out of the darkness into the light.