> I think you underestimate the value of virility.
Maybe. I think it varies with age group, as I was saying. I think people in their teen's and 20's are more interested in what's cool/hip. Certainly, for social services in that teen/20's demographic, I think you're right.
Older people, people with spouses, people with young children, people with mortgages, people with established careers and groups of friends and clubs and routines. Well, I think maybe the value of virility is less there. I'm not saying it's a good thing.
Where as social is just that its whats cool/hip and something your friends are using. I think you underestimate the value of virility. Services like Instagram and Tumblr, are all very good services that are social and could possibly unseat what we see now. People and not just in the tech circle are always trying out new cool/hip social services. If some users think its cool, convince their friends to join and the cycle starts over.