Targeted probes would be more complex, and thus more prone to mechanical or software failure, or copy failure across generations. Untargeted probes could remain dormant in interstellar space, whereas targeted probes would have to remain active (and thus consume energy) in order to course-correct and continue to approach their target.

If the goal is to mine the resources of one specific location, then a targeted probe makes sense. But if the goal is to proliferate and explore (or consume) as much of the universe as possible as efficiently as possible, then targeted probes seem less likely to succeed over the scale of time necessary.

> Targeted probes would be more complex, and thus more prone to mechanical or software failure, or copy failure across generations

I'd argue that your argument is either

a. not intrinsically true of complex probes or

b. just a modified version of the great filter argument

You could imagine an advanced civilization that creates an artificially intelligent probe that is pretty effective at problem solving and resilient to these sorts of failures. Even if targeted probes have to remain active, there is no reason they couldn't consume energy harvested from their origin world to course correct.

If your claim is that every form of intelligence will inevitably fall to mechanical or software failure, etc. then that claim seems to just be identical to the great filter claim.

> targeted probes seem less likely to succeed over the scale of time necessary.

Your own GP seems to provide a very compelling reason why this is not true.

Is "targeting" really a large requirement to add on to a device that needs to be able to fabricate spacecraft from raw materials wherever it lands?

>But if the goal is to proliferate and explore (or consume) as much of the universe as possible as efficiently as possible, then targeted probes seem less likely to succeed over the scale of time necessary.

Less likely than non targeted ones that you say wouldn't get past the first generation?