Re:Germany conducts first nationwide emergency warning day i...
by jcranmer on Thursday September 10, 2020 @05:57PM
(#24436967)
Possibility? Several places, in roughly decreasing order of likelihood by my estimation:
* Russia v... well, just about anyone else. Russia has made it clear that they consider a large part of Eastern Europe to be their sphere of influence, and have twice this century (Georgia and Ukraine, the latter mostly undeclared) going to war to prevent "the West" from expanding influence.
* Turkey v Greece and/or Cyprus. Discovery of gas in the eastern Mediterranean has meant that delineating EEZ boundaries there is critical, and especially given the fact that Greece owns a lot of islands just off Turkey's coast, there is an awfully high chance of flashpoints. Furthermore, there is a frozen conflict on the island of Cyprus itself that still poses risks for conflict.
* Balkan War #i-don't-even-know-anymore. The place has long-lasting political antipathy between different countries that provoked two major periods of war (the Balkan Wars that culminated in World War I, and the very messy breakup of Yugoslavia). Serbia hasn't admitted that Kosovo is lost to it, and Bosnia is a fractious country that holds itself together only through a convoluted power structure that hasn't healed the wounds of the Yugoslav Wars. Reignition of war here definitely remains a possibility.
* Civil war in Spain, Italy, or Britain [including a war between Britain and Ireland over Northern Ireland]. To be clear, I'm really scraping the barrel here: this is a war I consider possible, but extremely improbable. These countries have strong, persistent separatist movements--and national governments that are equally persistent in quashing them. It's possible, in exactly the wrong circumstances, that everyone ends up making moves that create a dispute that is only resolved by a war.
* Don't forget the possibility of an external regional conflict escalating into a world war, much as what happened in World War I. This is largely a rehash of the first option, though, since that's the only great power alliance breakdown that could result in this situation.
Note that you asked where it's a possibility, not where it is likely.
* Russia v... well, just about anyone else. Russia has made it clear that they consider a large part of Eastern Europe to be their sphere of influence, and have twice this century (Georgia and Ukraine, the latter mostly undeclared) going to war to prevent "the West" from expanding influence.
* Turkey v Greece and/or Cyprus. Discovery of gas in the eastern Mediterranean has meant that delineating EEZ boundaries there is critical, and especially given the fact that Greece owns a lot of islands just off Turkey's coast, there is an awfully high chance of flashpoints. Furthermore, there is a frozen conflict on the island of Cyprus itself that still poses risks for conflict.
* Balkan War #i-don't-even-know-anymore. The place has long-lasting political antipathy between different countries that provoked two major periods of war (the Balkan Wars that culminated in World War I, and the very messy breakup of Yugoslavia). Serbia hasn't admitted that Kosovo is lost to it, and Bosnia is a fractious country that holds itself together only through a convoluted power structure that hasn't healed the wounds of the Yugoslav Wars. Reignition of war here definitely remains a possibility.
* Civil war in Spain, Italy, or Britain [including a war between Britain and Ireland over Northern Ireland]. To be clear, I'm really scraping the barrel here: this is a war I consider possible, but extremely improbable. These countries have strong, persistent separatist movements--and national governments that are equally persistent in quashing them. It's possible, in exactly the wrong circumstances, that everyone ends up making moves that create a dispute that is only resolved by a war.
* Don't forget the possibility of an external regional conflict escalating into a world war, much as what happened in World War I. This is largely a rehash of the first option, though, since that's the only great power alliance breakdown that could result in this situation.
Note that you asked where it's a possibility, not where it is likely.